There are several NHL teams this season (2025‑26) that realistically have a shot at making a deep run — and even contending for the Stanley Cup — depending on how things break. Here’s a breakdown of the most likely contenders, dark horses, and key factors. (Note: “making a run” here means competing in the playoffs, going deep, possibly into the Final.)
The NHL season always brings its share of surprises and this year is no different. Some teams have wowed fans with unexpected performances, while others, despite sky-high expectations, have faltered. It’s all part of the drama and unpredictability that keeps us glued to the game.
What’s interesting is how some players who were off the radar at the start of the season have shot into stardom, while others have struggled to find their footing.
Now, judging which teams have the best shot at glory isn’t just about who has the most wins. It’s a bit more nuanced than that. Analysts often consider a mix of factors like roster depth, the magic touch of certain all-star players, and even sets of statistics that only seasoned watchers would understand. It might sound like a mystery to some, but for true fans, it’s a thrilling puzzle.
Several teams are consistently favorite topics in discussions about potential champions. These favorites aren’t just labeled that way on a whim. They’ve proven their mettle through impressive track records and the ability to handle pressure when it counts. Odds makers watch these teams closely, constantly adjusting expectations as the season unfolds.
As we follow the season to see who’ll eventually skate off with the Stanley Cup, it’s worth keeping an eye on these key teams. They’re the ones who set the pace and rhythm, making the games not just about winning but about showcasing some of the best hockey has to offer.
The Top Contenders
1. Vegas Golden Knights
- Why they’re in the mix: Vegas consistently ranks among the top Stanley Cup contenders. According to simulations run by Rotowire, they won the Cup in 42 out of 100 simulated seasons — the most of any team in their model.
- Offensive firepower: The Golden Knights added Mitch Marner via a sign‑and‑trade from Toronto, which boosts their top‑line potential.
- Strengths & concerns: Their scoring is deep, and they have power-play potential built around Marner, Jack Eichel, and others. On the flip side, they lost Alex Pietrangelo (defense), and their defensive continuity could be tested.
- Outlook: If their offense stays hot and they balance their defensive losses, Vegas is one of the most well‑rounded bets to make a deep playoff run.
2. Carolina Hurricanes
- Why they’re dangerous: According to several sources, including sportsbooks, Carolina is a top-tier Cup contender (+750 odds in some markets).
- Depth and structure: ESPN highlights their excellent depth up front and on defense.
- They added Nikolaj Ehlers in the offseason, giving their forward group more firepower, and bolstered their blue line with K’Andre Miller.
- Style of play: They play a structured, suffocating game. Their penalty kill is elite, and their system is built for consistency.
- X-factors: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Jaccob Slavin will need to deliver, especially in high-pressure playoff moments.
- Outlook: Carolina’s a classic “best in a balanced way” team. Not necessarily reliant on one superstar, but dangerous because of team cohesion. They definitely have a real shot.
3. Colorado Avalanche
- Star power: The Avs bring serious firepower, especially with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar anchoring their core.
- Experience: They’ve been in the mix before and know what a championship run looks like.
- Roster additions: They added veterans like Brent Burns and Victor Olofsson to supply experience and grit.
- Probability: According to Opta’s model, they have a meaningful shot — not the top favorite, but in the conversation.
- Outlook: If their top-end talent stays healthy and they avoid the kind of attrition that’s plagued them in the past, they could absolutely make a serious run.
4. Edmonton Oilers
- Star duo: You can’t talk about contenders without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Their elite-level offense is always a threat in the playoffs. Multiple sources list the Oilers among favorites.
- Motivation: After deep runs (and some heartbreak) in recent years, there’s a sense in Edmonton that “it’s now or never.”
- Challenges: Depth and defense can be concern areas, but if McDavid and Draisaitl are at their peak, the Oilers can outscore a lot of teams.
- Outlook: High risk, high reward. They’re not a guarantee, but they’re absolutely one of the more dangerous teams — especially if they catch fire in the postseason.
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Veteran core: The Lightning still have big-time names: Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point, and others.
- Offensive upside: They led the league in goals per game in recent seasons.
- Concerns: Age and fatigue are real — managing the regular season grind could be a challenge.
- Outlook: A veteran team that knows how to win. If they can stay healthy and maintain momentum, they could surprise a lot of people.
Dark Horses & Sleeper Teams
Beyond the “big five” contenders above, there are a few teams that might not be top favorites but could make a surprise run if things go their way.
New Jersey Devils
- Why they’re interesting: There’s growing optimism around their young core — Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and others.
- Expectation shift: Analysts are increasingly bullish, predicting not just a playoff berth but a deep run.
- Risk / Reward: They don’t have a James McDavid-level superstar, but if their group gels and their young talent steps up at the right time, they’re the kind of “sleeper” that could make noise.
Montreal Canadiens
- Upside: A “rising” team with a young, improving roster.
- Key pieces: Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are cornerstone players, and Montreal has been shoring up its defense.
- Dark-horse potential: Not consensus top-tier, but if they make the playoffs and catch momentum, they could be a real threat.
Ottawa Senators
- Knockout scenario: The Hockey Writers identified them as a dark horse because of goaltender Linus Ullmark, who — if he plays like his best self — could be a playoff backbone.
- Why it’s plausible: They’ve shown flashes, and if their goaltending holds and they get hot at the right time, their path is more favorable than people credit.
Why This Season Feels Particularly “Wide Open”
Betting markets reflect uncertainty: According to reports, this season’s Stanley Cup race is considered “wide open.”
Parity in the league: There’s less of a runaway favorite. Multiple teams have strong odds, but there’s no clear juggernaut (at least not yet).
Recent champion fade risk / repeat risk: Defending champs always face unique challenges: injuries, pressure, and regression. E.g., while Florida won last season, they may have vulnerabilities (more on that below).
Risks to Watch
- Injuries: All contenders face risk. For instance, the Panthers are defending champs, but losing core players (or dealing with wear and tear) could derail anything.
- Goaltending in playoffs: It’s not enough to just be good in the regular season — playoff goaltending often makes or breaks “making a run.”
- Depth vs. star power tradeoff: Some teams lean heavily on a few superstars (Oilers, Avalanche), while others (Hurricanes) rely on depth. Either style can work, but mismatch or injury in one area can be fatal deep in the playoffs.
- Experience matters: Teams like Vegas and Colorado have been in high-stakes games before. Younger teams (like New Jersey or Montreal) might have less playoff battle-tested experience.
My Conclusion: Who’s Most Likely to Make a Run (and Who Might Surprise)
- Most likely serious contenders: Vegas, Carolina, Colorado, Edmonton, Tampa Bay. Each brings a different style — from starpower to structure to experience.
- Top dark horses: New Jersey (because of their upward trajectory), Montreal (if their young core breaks through), and possibly Ottawa (if goaltending holds).
- Wildcard factor: This could be a season where a non-traditional favorite or a dark-horse team goes deep because of how open things are.
If I were to pick 3 teams most likely to make a deep run (semis or Final) right now, I’d lean toward:
Vegas Golden Knights — for their offense, depth, and smart roster moves
Carolina Hurricanes — for their system play, depth, and consistency
Colorado Avalanche — for elite star talent and experience
And a sleeper pick? I’d put some faith in the Montreal Canadiens, they feel like a team on the cusp, and if things break right, they could surprise.
Road to the Stanley Cup: What It Takes to Seal the Deal
Getting to hoist the Stanley Cup high means a team has to have the complete package. It’s not just about skating fast or hitting hard—it’s about balancing offense with defense, having solid goaltending, and keeping everyone healthy through thick and thin.
For a team looking to go all the way, strengths like scoring depth and versatile players are essential. It’s not just the leading scorers who need to step up, but those unsung heroes who come alive when it matters most. Everyone must commit to the cause every night.
Defense, the unflashy backbone of a championship team, is another key area. Good teams can shut down even the most skilled attackers, forcing turnovers and blocking shots like their lives depend on it. It’s about getting gritty, putting bodies on the line, and maybe a few sacrifices along the way.
Goaltending—often the literal last line of defense—is usually the single most critical factor in a playoff run. A hot goalie can steal games and apply immense psychological pressure on opponents. Having calm, collected, and consistent goalies can elevate an entire team’s confidence.
Playoff hockey tests both mental and physical endurance. As exciting as it is, it can also be draining. Injuries play a huge part, and teams that have depth, with quality backup players, often handle the wear-and-tear better, staying resilient. Experience playing in high-pressure environments helps too, smoothing over shaky nerves when the stakes soar.
It’s the little things—puck management, capitalizing on the power play, or killing off penalties—that often separate champions from the rest. Teams that can handle these details, while staying sharp throughout the playoffs, generally come out on top.
As teams stack up against each other in upcoming playoff matchups, watching which of these crews can piece it all together will make for captivating hockey moments. Those who can properly execute and thrive under pressure have the shot at being the new kings of the ice.